上網效率?

正當我們在熱烈談論網路社會時，我們是否注意到了另外一個問題，那就是“我們的上網效率如何？”其實，對於我們這些經常走在網上的人來說，肯定會有以下這些境遇。

場景一。本來想好一個上網的目的，然後在搜索引擎輸入關鍵字。但結果出來以後，前面的幾項結果比較有針對性，後面關聯係數越來越小。可在瀏覽過程中，通過超級連接不斷看到其他自己感興趣的內容，如關於某人的新聞報導，於是就在那裡瀏覽此人的資訊，離自己的關鍵字越來越遠！

場景二。本來在網路中專心尋找自己所要的東西，突然掛著的QQ提醒你，一個你久未聯繫的朋友上線了！於是，你馬上停下手中的活，和他攀談起來。不知不覺，時間就過去了一大半，一轉眼又到了下班時間！

場景三。本來穩定的網路突然不能上網了，於是，坐在電腦面前一時不知道幹什麼是好。在“我的電腦”中轉來轉去，不久才發現有一大堆事情等著自己處理。因為不能上網，所以自己就只能“安心”做原來早就該完成的任務了！

看到這裡，我想，大多數人都會贊成這樣的說法:上網讓自己“迷失”了方向，在網路環境中工作效率低下！除非是老闆逼著你說：再不完成，你這個月的獎金就泡湯拉！

本來擁有豐富資源的網路，該是我們獲取資訊的無窮寶藏，但往往由於“牛頭不對馬嘴”，“顧此失彼”，導致網路的優勢變成了我們自己的“劣勢”。也就是當我們處在網路中，面對大量出現的資訊而產生的類似於在大海中航行時迷失方向而不知所措的現象，這被稱為網路中的資訊迷航。

資訊迷航現象的產生

主要包括客觀和主觀兩個方面的原因。客觀原因中，海量資訊是基礎。不可否認，在互聯網產生的幾十年中，人類資訊的共用速度得到空前提高。網路中的資訊幾乎 包括了人類社會發展的所有資訊，完全可以用海量來形容。這就使得每個人完全能夠從網路中得到自己所需要的資訊。而與之相應的另外一個原因就是資訊的隨意 性。網路中所特有的超鏈結技術，一下子從技術手段上打破了過去個人傳播資訊的高成本和大眾傳媒的高度壟斷。它使得人們能夠從一個資訊點連接到另外一個完全 不相關的資訊點。於是，這種演變的另一個後果是造成傳播資訊的無序性。可以說，存在大量而無序的資訊是資訊迷航賴以生存的必要條件。

主觀原因有三個方面。首先是人的注意力有限。注意廣度也就是注意的範圍，是指人在同一時間內所能清楚地把握的對像的數量。相對於網路的海量 資訊，人的注意力是有限的也是相對不足的，也就是說人對資訊的選擇、轉移、加工能力是有限的，面對大量的資訊，如果人不能及時有效地處理這些資訊，就會出 現資訊超載。另外，人的注意不能長時間地保持不變，總是有間歇性地加強和減弱，這叫做注意起伏現象，它受到許多條件的影響，包括刺激強度和持續時間，刺激 物在時間和空間上的確定性，活動內容和活動方式的多樣化，以及個體本身的情緒、態度。在網路中，隨著時間的延長，面對各種意想不到的資訊，人的注意力會發 生一定的轉移，有時可能從學習轉移到其他與學習無關的資訊上並產生迷航。

其次是缺乏過程性引導和有效的資訊組織方式。在上網過程中，用戶在多數時間和情況下處於自主使用網路的過程中，自己 制訂工作計劃，收集資料，進行自我評價。而在實際操作中對工作進展和取得的成果，是很難進行正確地自我評估的。階段性不明顯，用戶對工作進程沒有客觀的把 握，成就感不明顯，注意力就受到影響。另外，由於網路資訊本身的無序性，導致人們對資訊的處理方法不當。如有些人不能及時分辨有效資訊，對獲取的資訊不能 進行科學分類等。

第三個就是心理依賴。對網路的依賴表現為網路依賴症（有時我們稱之為網路成隱），它是一種數位媒體的強迫行為，具體表現是:每天的上網時間 不能自主控制，睡覺時還做著網路的夢，休息的時候手指會不自覺地顫動。嚴重者除了上網以外，喪失了正常工作和處理日常事務的能力。在隨時能夠上網的工作環 境中，隨著用戶使用網路時間的增加，患有不同程度網路依賴症的患者也在不斷增加，這已經成為一個備受關注的社會現象。

如何提高上網效率

從目前來看，我們對於網路中的資訊組織方式無法改變，因此，只能從自身出發，來提高上網效率。

首先要在主觀上，樹立提高上網效率的觀念。思想是行動的指導，我們要時刻提醒自己，不要在網路中“迷失”方向。提高自身的辨別能力，不要被無關的資訊所干擾。要明確什麼樣的資訊是有用的，將有限的注意力資源分配好。

其次是我們要更加注重資訊和學習的價值。我們不能把自己融入到資訊裡面，而應該著重於資訊能為我們提供的價值。哥倫比亞大學的傑韋爾說: “我們需要從資訊時代走向思考時代，”他建議:花60%的時間創造和決策，只用15%的時間收集資訊，剩下的25%作數據分析。網路上有大量的有用資訊， 但由於資訊迷航，真正能發揮作用的並不多。“因為我們被科技引入歧途，在釋放資訊價值方面讓技術牽著我們的鼻子走。我們過分利用硬碟，沒有有充分利用自己 的腦子。資訊時代著重（研究）更好的答案。”他說，“思考時代將著重於更好的問題。”我們應當認識到:不是一味追求更強大的電腦和更快的調製調解器，而是 要使學習的品質更高和更有效率;不是為了搜集更多的資訊，而是為了創造更多的價值。

第三是掌握快速閱讀的學習方法，努力形成自我組織的工作方式。略讀、速讀和精讀，分別反映了學習的廣度和深度，在網路環境下這種閱讀技巧的 重要性再度突顯出來。所不同的是，傳統閱讀主要精力都放在精讀上，而面對網路上不計其數的資訊資源，更需要略讀和速讀的本領，在網路環境下學習內容是很豐 富的，但人的注意力和時間卻是相對有限，如果每一篇都細看必將導致資訊超載，所以必須提高速讀和略讀的能力，在瀏覽的同時要能迅速捕捉自己所需要的資訊， 並快速進行鑒別、歸納，只有通過不斷地實踐，才能逐步掌握整體閱讀、瀏覽閱讀、選擇閱讀等各種快速閱讀的方法，從而提高獲取資訊的能力。

自我組織的學習方式要求我們能夠緊扣目標，在大量的資訊資源中進行檢索，並對數量龐大的檢索結果，逐一篩選，找出相關的材料，並將這些相關 資料中沒有價值的去掉，把有用資訊按照自己的邏輯思路整合起來，形成對這一問題的認識。這種自主式探索活動完全不同於傳統的學習方法，它對我們的檢索、篩 選、過濾和整合的能力提出了更高的要求。

儘管網路無限精彩，但只有我們切實提高上網效率，才能讓自己通過網路更加精彩！

An Identity Crisis for Supermarkets

美國超市競爭激烈 求新求變刻不容緩

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當前美國超級市場業者最大的噩夢是：越來越多的消費者不再喜歡到超市購物了，面對大量的選擇，他們寧 願到沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart），好事多（ Costco）等倉儲零售店或其它折扣店享受低價位服務，或選擇天然有機食品和主張環保的超市Whole Foods 及 Wild Oats等。

紐約時報報導，傳統的超市在困境中掙扎。他們面臨的壓力也越來越大：沃爾瑪和Whole Foods雄心勃勃地計劃拓展，而Target也將插足。

現在，傳統超市想盡了一切辦法來扭轉劣勢，以挽回顧客。在Whole Foods受顧客歡迎的前題下，傳統超市正在增加有機食品和天然食品的種類。並增加速成食品。同時降低了價格。

當 然，美國全國的56，000家超市在食品銷售上仍佔主導地位，但他們的銷售量直線下降。顧客造訪超市的次數越來越少。據投資銀行UBS的調查，1996 年，一個美國家庭平均每年到超市購物95次﹔2004年下降至70次。在這八年中，消費者平均每年去沃爾瑪的次數從13 次上升至26次，去好事多的次數從每年8次上升至11次。

超市零售業正面臨著前所未有的壓力。今年二月，雜貨店運營商Winn-Dixie Stores正式申請破產。上個月，埃伯森（Albertsons）宣布他們將雇佣投資銀行家來研究未來可行的方案，包括可能出售埃伯森超級市場企業。

其它的連鎖店也情況不妙。在過去五年中，美國最大的三家超市連鎖店克羅格（Kroger）, 埃伯森（Albertsons ）和 安路（Safeway）的銷售直線下滑。

Whole Foods目前在全國有177家連鎖店，僅佔不到1%的市場，還未對其它對手構成威脅，但分析家說其他的執行董事們正在密切關注這家全國發展最迅速的連鎖機構，因為它的成功促使競爭對手們增加商品供給。

克羅格正在建立三套可選擇方案。一是新鮮食材店（Fresh Fare stores），提供更高檔的服務以及提出像Whole Foods的天然高檔食品，如有機食品，壽司，各種乳酪及2，000種酒類。

二是克羅格百貨店（Kroger‘s Marketplace），其店面是原有雜貨店的兩倍，出售各類百貨，有些類似沃爾瑪，但價格並不是那麼便宜。

三是克羅格廉價食品店（Food 4 Less stores），試圖與沃爾瑪在價格上爭奪顧客。

連 鎖超市經營商Food Lion也採取了應變措施。三年前他們就著手建立一種名為Bloom的新概念商店。現在五家全部在北卡羅萊納州。他們在商店的入口處設置了快速購物區以方 便那些隻想要牛奶，雞蛋或晚餐必需品的顧客。通常超市會把這些常用品放在商場的後面，以吸引顧客在穿過貨架時順便購買其它商品。

新的商店擁有更寬的走道，更低的貨架，在結賬處不再放置糖果。冰淇淋也被放在最前端以防止融化。

克羅格和安域也推出了更多的方便食品來滿足顧客的需要;這在Whole Foods已經取得了巨大的成功，並佔全店銷售的１０％。

安域重新改造的生活型態店（Lifestyle stores）擁有擴大的熟食部，成排的湯類，一個切肉部及“速成批薩”。店裡的一些地方同時安裝了柔和的燈光和仿木地板使店面感覺更為高雅。

但是無論超市業者如何努力，很多分析家仍認為他們將輸給對手。貝恩管理顧問公司（Bain & Company, Inc.）負責全球零售實務的雷格比（美國超市競爭激烈 求新求變刻不容緩

An Identity Crisis for Supermarkets

By Melanie Warner

Georgiana Gardiner has no use for conventional supermarkets. When Gardiner, who lives in a Denver suburb, wants fresh fish, meat, produce or other perishables, she drives 25 minutes to the nearest Whole Foods Market. When she needs products like canned beans, pasta and paper towels, she goes to a Wal-Mart Supercenter.

It has been at least a year, she said, since she entered a Safeway or Kroger, the two national supermarket chains that operate in the Denver area. "Once you go to start eating organic foods, you can't go back," said Gardiner, 61. Whole Foods may be "more expensive, but it's worth it," she added. "Anyway, I make up some of the difference at Wal-Mart."

Gardiner and a growing number of shoppers like her are the supermarket industry's worst nightmare. Faced with a seemingly endless array of food shopping choices, consumers are increasingly shunning the neighborhood supermarket and going to Wal-Mart, Costco or other discount retailers for rock-bottom prices, or to places like Whole Foods and Wild Oats for specialized quality and service.

Traditional supermarkets, caught in the middle, are struggling to survive, and the pressures on them may only intensify: Wal-Mart and Whole Foods have ambitious expansion plans, and Target says it wants to become a big player, too.

The trend is not unique to the United States. The two largest retailers in Europe, Carrefour and Tesco, have been lifting market share by cutting prices and expanding floor space, while smaller discount companies like Lidl, Aldi and Real have also grown in recent years, leaving traditional players, like J. Sainsbury in Britain, squeezed in between. Wal-Mart has said it wants to step up its expansion in both Central and Eastern Europe, where Tesco is the leader, and in Asia, which Carrefour entered in 1989. Wal-Mart also announced on Sept. 30 that it would take control of the Japanese supermarket chain Seiyu.

Now, traditional supermarkets in the United States are trying to turn things around and win back customers. In a nod to Whole Foods, they are adding more organic and natural food items and selling more prepared foods for quick lunches and dinners. And they are cutting prices.

The 56,000 supermarkets in the United States remain the dominant venues for food shopping, but their share of the business has been steadily declining. The average U.S. household made 95 trips a year to the supermarket in 1996; in 2004 it was 70, a study by UBS said. In that eight-year span, annual trips to stores like Wal-Mart jumped to 26 from 13, and trips to membership stores like Costco increased to 11 from eight. "Supermarkets are facing an identity crisis," said Harvey Hartman, chief executive of the Hartman Group, a consulting firm in Seattle.

In the past five years, Wal-Mart has emerged as a dominant force in the U.S. grocery business, selling almost twice the amount of food and grocery items as Kroger, the largest supermarket chain in the United States.

Wal-Mart undercuts supermarket prices by as much as 20 percent but is still able to generate considerable profit because of its enormous volume and huge buying power. Wal-Mart's labor costs also are lower because, unlike those at most supermarkets, its employees are not unionized.

"Wal-Mart just keeps growing," said David Dillon, chief executive of Kroger, which regularly compares the performance of its stores against Wal-Mart Supercenters. "And I don't see any signs of a slowdown in the number of stores."

Wal-Mart, with 1,866 supercenters in the United States, all with grocery stores, does not break out food sales, but Retail Forward, a research firm in Columbus, Ohio, estimates that in 2004 the company sold $109 billion in groceries, taking a 19 percent share of the market. Retail Forward projected that the number of Wal-Mart Supercenters may triple by 2010 and that its share of the grocery business may rise to 35 percent.

U.S. supermarkets are feeling the squeeze. In February, Winn- Dixie Stores, which has 92 percent of its stores within a radius of 20 miles, or 32 kilometers, of a Wal-Mart Supercenter, filed for bankruptcy protection. Last month, Albertsons, whose U.S. market share has declined in Wal-Mart strongholds like Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, announced that it had hired investment bankers to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale.

Other chains are faring only slightly better. Over the last five years, sales at Kroger, Albertsons and Safeway, the three-largest supermarket chains in the United States, have stagnated and profits have been dismal.

With 177 stores and less than 1 percent of the U.S. market, Whole Foods is not yet much of a financial threat. But analysts say that supermarket executives are anxiously watching the company, which is the fastest-growing grocery chain in the United States. "Whole Foods has redefined the landscape of what a grocery store is," said Hartman, of the Hartman consulting group. "That means more fresh items, bigger produce sections, more selection for natural and organic foods and more prepared foods."

The situation for supermarkets is dire, said Neil Currie, an analyst at UBS. For years, he said, supermarkets failed to respond to consumers' migration toward restaurants and their increased desire for natural foods. Today, 46.9 percent of all food dollars in the United States are spent at restaurants and similar establishments, compared with 41.3 percent in 1985, according to the Agriculture Department of Agriculture. "If nothing changes," Currie said in a report last year, "the format could die a slow death as Wal-Mart and other nontraditional formats continue to take market share."

Is It Better to Buy or Rent?

買房還是租房卡好？

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近年來，由於低利率和一系列新的抵押貸款方式的產生，許多租房者轉而購買房產，導致房價飆升，相應地削弱了租房市場，房東們被迫減租，至少也不敢大幅度增 加租金了。在過去5年裡，紐約，華盛頓，洛杉磯等地的房產價格長了一倍，而租金卻幾乎沒有變動。其結果是，在美國最熱絡的房市上，房價和租金之間的關係脫 節了。

傳統上，人們常常把租房看作是把錢白白扔掉；現在也許值得重新對租房做個評價了。因此，紐約時報上月底以「是租好還是買好」為題做了分析。

克利斯汀森女士今年以105萬的價格賣掉了她坐落於美國加州拉爾克斯普鎮的擁有百年歷史的維多利亞式別墅。然後，她搬入了斯汀森沙灘的一棟兩層樓房，每月付租金2400元。現在，她可以坐在她的起居室，一邊品茶，一邊觀賞著太平洋的波濤。

買房的好處

擁有自己的屋居，除理財方面的收益外，顯然還有其它好處，比如內心的穩定感和歸宿感。房主們可以安心地長期居住下來，而不用擔心合同結束後房東是否願意續租的問題；也可以憑著自己的喜好任意改變起居室牆壁的顏色，而不必擔心別人干涉。

克利斯汀森女士曾在她的拉爾克斯普別墅周圍建了一個花園，裡面不但種了梨樹和無花果樹，還種著迷迭香，熏衣草花並插上了黃楊木籬。而在斯汀森沙灘，她沒進行任何這類勞動。

憑長期經驗來看，購房者要保留一棟新居所5至7年，方可抵銷房地產買賣手續費及其它相關費用（當然，目前這個時間長度已經縮短，部分原因是房屋價格激劇上升）。

以此看來，對多數已經擁有自己的住宅並已安定下來的人們來說，租房可能並不合算。

目前租房的優勢

但是，對於那些正在考慮搬家或者尚未擁有房產的人們，就要用不同的角度去看問題了，至少他們不應該悲慼自己的租房行為是把錢扔進大海了。

據 紐約時報的分析，在加州灣區(舊金山)，一個典型的家庭購買一棟100萬的房子（這在一些市鎮是房產平均價格）每個月要花銷5000元。這個家庭卻可以用2500元 租一棟同樣的房子。在(紐約)曼哈頓上東區，1000平方英尺的兩睡房公寓現在每月租3700元，而購買一套同樣的公寓則需要110萬元左右，折合成每月租金，就 是6000元左右。

據房地產紀錄顯示，如果這個家庭選擇租房而不是買房，那麼他可以把原本用於房屋首期付款的那部分資金用來投資，所獲得的利息又可償付部分房租。儘管房地產經紀人不願承認這一點，但事實上擁有房產是在以交付財產稅和抵押貸款利息等特有的方式把錢扔掉。

租金比率

在任何房地產市場上，如果一棟典型房屋的價格超過年租金的20倍，購房的月成本就比租房的月成本要貴。

在紐約時報的分析中，租房的成本包括每月租金加上租客的保險；而擁有房產的月成本則包括典型的屋居保險，重大維修，財產稅和房屋的分期付款，再扣去稅項減免額。

在灣區，這個「租金比率」超過了33。在紐約，波士頓，洛杉磯和邁阿密，恰好超過25。華盛頓的比率是20，正好接近分界線。

在邁阿密任信貸員的奧文先生和他的女朋友每月付1700元租金，住在公寓最高層，既可以觀賞該城市的地平線，又可以俯瞰大西洋。在和經紀人談過之後，他說他認為這套公寓可以賣將近65萬元，那麼租金比率超過了30。他因此認為租房要合算得多。

買房動機中的一個最大誤解

紐約時報分析說，這個誤解是圍繞著減稅方面的。許多人似乎認為購房可以給他們省錢，因為抵押貸款的利息可得到稅項減免。

但 是，該稅項減免只能是減去因借錢而產生的費用，也就是說如果一個家庭不購買房子，這筆花費根本就不存在。美國家庭平均在一棟房子裡居住六年，而據大型貸款 公司」國立城市公司」說，在此期間，即使如今的利息率很低，即使得到稅項減免，一項60萬元的抵押貸款要付的利息合計也達12萬元。

況且，很多房主並沒有逐條列記他們所得到的減稅，如果這樣做了，就會發現他們的減稅額總和只不過比一般納稅人（包括租房者）的標準減稅額多一點點而已。

買房好還是租房好？

由於租房者可以把原本要付的首期付款和房地產買賣的手續費投資於證券或股票上，所以時報在這篇分析中給與他們大約4％的稅後利潤；而買房者的已付清的房屋分期付款部分則被記入貸方。

當供養一棟房產的淨花費比租房的淨花費低，那麼支持買房的論點就佔了絕對上風，比如在芝加哥，達拉斯，聖路易以及美國中部的大部分地區，只要房屋價格未來不激劇下跌，在這些地區買房就會比租房要有利的多。

如今在美國東北大部分地區(包括紐約)，佛羅里達州，加利福尼亞州等地，買房比租房要貴（稅收優惠也被計入）。只有當現已十分昂貴的房價再有極大幅度的增長時，房主才可能處於有利地位。

對於新的購房者來說，紐約的房價在未來五年裡需要再升高大約13％才能使買房比一般租房划算。在北加州，房價和租金之間的差距是最大的，房屋價值在2010年之前上升19％才划算。

在未來十年裡，紐約房價要增長25％才可均衡，而在加州則需要增長40％。

問題是，未來的房價能否達到這樣的增長呢。事實上，甚至那些不認為房地產市場正處於泡沫之中的經濟學家們也預計價格增長將會放緩。還有人預言，房屋價值將會像90年代初東西海岸城市的屋價那樣下降；或者在未來許多年裡價格會停滯不前。

據紐約時報10月4日報道，美國全國房地產市場的確已經開始降溫。隨著賣房者越來越多，房屋出售速度開始放慢，價格已經不再像早前那樣持續增長了。

當然，對許多人來說，買房對人的心理影響也是不容忽視的。擁有房產讓人們感到他們已經實現了美國夢，或者說給與了他們安全感，他們有了可以在夜間安然入寢的有形資產。

這的確是好感覺。問題是它們在你心中的價值值多少。

(紐約時報)

---

Is It Better to Buy or Rent?

By DAVID LEONHARDT

THE thought has occurred to just about everybody who owns a home in a hot housing market: maybe it's time to cash out.

The hard part is figuring out how to do so. Only a few families can actually pick up their life in, say, California and move it to Nebraska. The other option - renting - has long been derided as the equivalent of throwing money away.

But renting might deserve another look right now. After five years in which rents have barely budged while house prices in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and elsewhere have doubled, renting has become a surprisingly smart option for many people who never would have considered it before.

Owning a home often ties up hundreds of thousands of dollars that might be invested more safely and more lucratively elsewhere over the next decade. And while real estate brokers may hate to acknowledge it, home ownership involves its own versions of throwing money away, like property taxes and the costs of borrowing.

Add it all up - which The New York Times did, in an analysis of the major costs and benefits of owning and renting, including tax breaks - and owning a home today is more expensive than renting in much of the Northeast, Florida and California. Only if prices rise well above their already lofty levels will home ownership turn out to be the good deal that it is widely assumed to be.

In the Bay Area of California, a typical family that buys a $1 million house - which is average in some towns - will spend about $5,000 a month to live there, according to the Times analysis. The family could rent a similar house for about $2,500, real estate records show, and could pay part of that bill with the interest earned by the money that was not used for a down payment.

This gaping difference helped persuade Eloise Christensen to sell her century-old Victorian cottage in downtown Larkspur, Calif., for $1.05 million this year. Now she rents a two-story house in Stinson Beach for $2,400 a month. From her living room, she can sip tea and watch the waves from the Pacific Ocean.

"It just seems out of control," said Ms. Christensen, 43, a massage therapist and graphic designer. "It didn't seem to me that the market was going to be able to sustain these high prices."

There are obviously benefits to home ownership beyond the financial, like peace of mind and a feeling of stability. Owners cannot have their home yanked away by a landlord who has decided to move back in. Owners can also change the color of their living room walls or fix a draft seeping through their windows without asking permission.

Surrounding her Larkspur cottage, Ms. Christensen had built a garden with rosemary, lavender and boxwood hedges to complement the pear and fig trees already there. She is not doing anything like that in Stinson Beach.

Combine these benefits with the transaction costs of a house sale, and renting probably does not make sense for most people who already own their home and feel settled in it.

But the calculation can look quite different for those who are considering a move anyway or who do not yet own a home. At the very least, renters in boom markets, who often lament that they are wasting money, should know that their choice has as powerful an economic rationale as buying does right now.

"I am a proponent of buying," said Tchaka Owen, 37, a loan officer and licensed real-estate agent in Miami who is renting a two-bedroom apartment overlooking the bay there. "But you can get so much more for your money, renting instead of buying. We're paying half the amount we would be paying if we owned this place."

In Manhattan, 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom apartments on the Upper East Side now rent for about $3,700 a month. Buying a similar apartment costs around $1.1 million, which can translate into monthly payments of $6,000 or so.

To determine the cost of renting, the Times analysis added monthly rent and renters' insurance. For owning, the analysis included typical costs for home insurance, major repairs, property taxes and mortgage payments, as well as the tax deductions they create.

Renters were given credit for a small return - about 4 percent, after taxes - on the money they could have invested in bonds or stocks instead of spending it on a down payment and closing costs. Buyers received credit for the portion of the mortgage they were paying off, as opposed to the interest costs.

When the net costs of owning are less than those of renting, as is the case in Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis and much of the middle of the country, the argument for buying becomes overwhelming. So long as home prices do not fall sharply, home buyers in these places will do much better than renters.

But when owning is more expensive every month, buyers are betting entirely on price appreciation.

For new home buyers, prices in New York would need to rise roughly another 13 percent over the next five years for the average buyer to do better than the average renter over that span. In Northern California, where the gap between house prices and rents is largest, home values would need to go up about 19 percent by 2010.

Over the next decade, the break-even increase is about 25 percent in New York and 40 percent in California.

Such increases have been easily achieved in the recent past. But even economists who do not consider the real estate market to be in a bubble predict that price gains will slow. Other forecasters argue that values will fall, as they did on the coasts in the early 1990's, or be stuck near their current levels for years to come. No matter who is right, the buy-versus-rent debate is a closer call than it has been in years.

"If you believe you'll be moving in the next four or five years, I'd rent," said Thomas Z. Lys, an accounting professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University . "If you're a long-termer, I still would buy."

The single biggest misconception about home ownership, some brokers and economists say, might revolve around tax deductions. Many people seem to believe that buying a home can actually save them money because the interest on their mortgage is tax deductible.

But all that deduction does is reduce the cost of borrowing the money - a cost that would not exist if the family were not buying the home. Families spend about six years in a house, on average, according to the National Association of Realtors. In that time, the interest on a $600,000 mortgage would add up to about $120,000, even at today's low rates and even after the tax deduction, according to National City Corporation, a large lender.

"Don't be buying a house because you think you're saving on the taxes," said Frank Borges LLosa, owner of FranklyRealty.com, a brokerage in Arlington, Va. "You'll save even more by not buying and renting."

Mr. LLosa added: "I'm not saying not to buy. I'm saying don't buy just for the tax reasons."

Many homeowners also do not receive the full deductions from home ownership. In the Northeast and California, homeowners now have so many deductions that some must pay the alternative minimum tax. This tax effectively wipes out part of their property-tax deduction, further cutting into the benefits of home ownership.

Other homeowners do not itemize their deductions or, if they do so, end up with total deductions only a little larger than the standard deduction that the government offers to all taxpayers, even renters.

"A lot of people hugely overvalue the mortgage deduction," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal group in Washington, "because they compare it to no deduction instead of comparing it to the standard deduction."

Mr. Baker is one of the avant garde renters. He and his wife sold their condominium in Washington last year for $445,000 and now rent a similar one nearby for $2,200 a month.

The Times analysis made a number of assumptions favorable to buyers, like giving them full credit for the deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes, noted Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy .com, a research company. Still, the monthly costs of buying were more expensive than those for renting in any market where the price of a typical house was more than 20 times larger than the annual rent to live in it.

In the Bay Area, this "rent ratio" exceeds 33. In New York, Boston, Los Angeles and Miami, it is just above 25. A typical four-bedroom house in Brookline, Mass., for example, costs about $1.2 million to buy and $4,500 a month to rent, according to Chobee Hoy Associates Real Estate, a brokerage there.

At 20, Washington is right near the cutoff. But renters who live in apartment buildings, like Mr. Baker, often get an extra benefit: some portion of their utilities bill is typically covered by the building's owner.

Mr. Owen, the loan officer in Miami, and his girlfriend, Polly Thompson, pay $1,700 a month for a top-floor apartment that has views of both the city's skyline and the Atlantic Ocean. After talking to brokers, he said he thought that the apartment would sell for close to $650,000, giving it a rent ratio of more than 30.

"It's obvious," he said, "that renting is such a better deal."

But to many people, the psychological benefits of buying are almost impossible to overcome. Owning makes them feel that they have achieved the American dream, or it gives them the secure sense that, if nothing else, they have a tangible asset where they can sleep at night.

Those are nice feelings, indeed. The question is how much they are worth to you.

Love will keep us together

Love, love will keep us together
Think of me babe whenever
Some sweet talkin' girl comes along, singin' a song
Don't mess around, you just gotta be strong

Just stop, 'cause I really love you
Stop, I been thinkin' of you
Look in my heart and let love keep us together

You (you, do do do) you belong to me now (do, do do do)
Ain't gonna set ya free now (do do do)
When those girls start hangin' around, talkin' me down
Hear with your heart and ya won't hear a sound

Just stop (stop, stop) cause I really love you (really love you)
Stop (stop, stop) I been thinkin' of you (been thinkin' of you)
Look in my heart and let love keep us together, whatever

Young and beautiful, but someday your looks'll be gone
When the others turn you off, who'll be turnin' you on
I will, I will, I will, I will be there to share forever
Love will keep us together
I said it before and I'll say it again
While others pretend
I need ya now and I need ya then

Just stop (stop) cause I really love you (really love you)
Stop (stop) I been thinkin' of you (been thinkin' of you)
Look in my heart and let love keep us together
Whatever (a-ba-da whatever)
I will (ever), I will (ever), I will (ever), I will (ahh)

Synthesizer solo (Da da da da, da da da da, da da da da)

You better stop (stop) cause I really love you (really love you)
Stop (stop) I been thinkin' of you (been thinkin' of you)
Look in my heart and let love keep us together
Whatever (a-ba-da whatever)
I will (ever), I will (ever), I will (ever), I will (ahh)

Clapping and whistling

(Da da da da, da da da da, da da da da)
(Da da da da, da da da da, da da da da)

Job's tear drinking

Korean style sea food pancake

材料：蝦仁150克、透抽100克、牡犡100克、魷魚100克、胡蘿蔔末55克、高麗菜末55克、韭 菜末25克、蔥花20克、玉米粒適量、中筋麵粉 300克、冷水700㏄、蛋2個，鹽、酒各15克，白胡椒、香油各5克、辣椒3克、白芝麻約5克、沙拉油適量

1 瀝乾 煮小鍋滾水依序燙熟蝦仁、透抽、牡犡、魷魚瀝乾；蔬菜切末備用。

2 拌糊 中筋麵粉、冷水、蛋、鹽、酒、白胡椒、香油、辣椒拌成麵糊，與蔬菜拌勻鬆弛30分鐘。

3 香煎 蔬菜麵糊與海鮮拌勻，平底鍋熱油後以半煎炸煎至兩面金黃，撒白芝麻即可。

Rib Eye Roast

Rib Eye Roast

From Diana Rattray,Your Guide to Southern U.S. Cuisine.

This flavorful rib eye roast is coated with seasonings then topped with a mustard and horseradish sauce mixture. Serve with baked potatoes and tossed salad.

Prep Time :
Cook Time :
Type of Prep : Bake, Roast
Cuisine : U.S. Regional
Occasion : Christmas, Family Dinner

INGREDIENTS:

• 1 beef rib eye roast, about 4 pounds
• 1 teaspoon salt
• 1/2 teaspoon coarsely ground black pepper
• 1/2 teaspoon dried leaf thyme 百里香

• 1/4 cup Dijon mustard
• 2 teaspoons prepared horseradish辣根

PREPARATION:

Combine salt, pepper, and thyme; rub over all sides of roast. Place the roast, fat side up, on a rack in a roasting pan. If using a meat thermometer, insert in center of roast. Roast at 350° for about 1 hour. Combine Dijon mustard and horseradish; spread over the beef. Roast for 25 minutes longer, or until roast is about 145° (on instant-read thermometer or meat thermometer) for medium rare. Roast to about 160° for medium.
Serves 8.

Beef Rib Eye Roast With Red Wine Mushroom Sauce

Yield: 8 Servings

Ingredients
1		3 lb. boneless beef rib eye roast
3/4	ts	Salt, divided
1/2	ts	Pepper, divided
1/2	c	Chopped onion
1/2	c	Dry red wine
1	tb	Cornstarch
1	cn	(13 3/4 oz) single strength bBeef broth
1	cn	(4 oz) mushroom pieces and stems, drained
1	tb	Chopped parsley
Instructions
1. About 1 1/2 hours before serving:Sprinkle roast烘肉 with 1/2 tsp. salt and 1/4 tsp. pepper. Place boneless beef rib eye roast, fat side up, on rack in open roasting pan. Insert meat thermometer so bulb is centered in thickest part, but not resting in fat. Do not add water. Do not cover. Roast in 350 degree oven to desired degree of doneness. Allow 18 to 20 minutes for rare; 20 to 22 minutes for medium. About 15 minutes before serving, remove roast when meat thermometer registers 135 degrees for rare; 155 degrees for medium. Tent with aluminum foil; allow roast to "stand" 15 minutes in warm place before carving. Roast should continue to rise about 5 degrees in temperature to 140 degrees for rare, 160 degrees for medium. While roast is standing, remove rack from roasting pan; skim fat. Add onions to pan drippings; place roasting pan over medium high heat on top of range. Cook onions, stirring occasionally, until tender, about 3 minutes. Add wine; bring to boil; cook about 3 minutes or until thickened. Combine cornstarch and remaining, salt and pepper. Gradually, add beef broth to cornstarch mixture, stirring constantly; add to wine mixture in roasting pan. Continue cooking. Stir in mushrooms and parsley. Pour into serving container. Carve rib eye roast into thin slices. Serve with Red Wine and Mushroom Sauce.

Sexy CIA

Sexy Cup

Liquid foundation and pressed powder

露華濃修復再顏粉底液
550元 37ml
劑型：油包水
滋潤度：4.5
延展性：3.5
保養配方：含維他命C磷酸鈉等美白成分；六多肽、類肉毒桿菌、人參等抗老化成分；葡萄籽、銀杏及綠茶等抗氧化成分。
推薦理由：含美白、抗老化及抗氧化等保養成分，服貼度佳。
彩妝師評析：遮蓋力 2 服貼度 4 質地透不油膩，油性肌膚適用。









露華濃修復再顏粉餅 495元
劑型：油包水
滋潤度：4.5
延展性：4
保養配方：含黑醋粟等美白成分；六多肽、類肉毒桿菌、人參等抗老化成分；矢車菊等消炎成分。
推薦理由：添加美白、抗老化及消炎等多種不錯的保養配方。
彩妝師評析：遮蓋力 2 服貼度 3 粉質略粗，塗多層會使妝感厚重，只需塗1層即可。

Bialetti Espresso Coffer maker

Espresso coffee — Espresso
	Buy ground espresso coffee in your supermarket with an Italian brand name. Nowadays it can easily be found in vacuum packs, possibly 100% "Arabica" but also blends can be very good. The most renowned Italian brands are Illy and Lavazza. I suggest Bialetti moka espresso coffee maker, the only one to bear the unique mark of the "little fellow with the moustache". Let's start! Put cold water in the lower part of the pot not exceeding the height of the valve; set the coffee filter over the water in the lower chamber and fill it with the ground coffee without pressing; screw on very tight the upper chamber and place the coffee maker on a low flame. Wait till the coffee bubbles up, with the cover half open. Avoid boiling. Then pour it directly in the coffee cups and add sugar to your taste. Once the pack has been opened, store the coffee in an hermetically sealed jar so that the coffee keeps all its aroma. Never use detergents to clean the Moka Espresso coffee maker. Rinse it only with water.

聯合報的祖國夢:青藏鐡路

Tibet rail line is a marvel偉大, but China is mum沈默

Chinese reticence節制 has much to do with aspirations志業 for Tibetan independence

HOWARD W. FRENCH

GOLMUD, SEPTEMBER 12 By the time the great railroad reaches this town from the east, it will already have traversed more than half of China, past the high desert of Qinghai, around one of the world’s great salt lakes, through the arid fastness of Gansu and over and around mountain ranges arrayed like endless sets of waves all the way to Beijing. The biggest challenges, however, lie when the line heads to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, over what is often called the roof of the world. For long stretches the railway, which is fast nearing completion, will operate at altitudes higher than many small planes can fly. Indeed, the train, whose engines will need turbochargers just to get enough oxygen to run, will often soar above the clouds. One might expect a country that is pulling off one of the world’s great engineering feats功績 to be eager to show off its handiwork. If so, no one has told the Railway Ministry, which for a full year refused to answer requests to visit the new line. What could explain such a reluctance to show off this marvel of railway building? As was underscored by events in Lhasa—where Beijing was celebrating the 40th anniversary of what it calls the Tibet Autonomous Region—it had much to do with Tibetan aspirations for independence. By some estimates, the new train will carry as many as 900,000 people to Tibet each year, with the newcomers overwhelmingly consisting of members of China’s Han majority, many of whom will opt to stay. ‘‘The Han population is rising and the Tibetan language, our mother language, is losing its position among our people,’’ said a Tibetan teacher who fled to India in January after being arrested several times for his views. ‘‘The road building jobs and the construction jobs are not open to Tibetans, and young Tibetan girls are turning to prostitution.’’ If the Chinese wish to help Tibet, said the teacher, who asked not to be identified, ‘‘They should stop the immigration and give the opportunities to local people so they can improve their lives, and we can protect our culture’’. —NYT

世界最高 青藏鐵路18日貫通

記者陳東旭／專題報導

再過十天左右，眾所矚目的青藏鐵路就要全線貫通。這條鐵路集政治、經濟、旅遊功能於一身，可媲美早年美國西部的鐵路開發；其工程之艱鉅、複雜和危險程度，堪稱舉世無雙，並將大幅改善西藏長期以來對外交通封閉的命運。

力抗高山症
徵調十萬人 邊吸氧邊施工

青藏鐵路從青海的格爾木通往西藏首府拉薩，全長一千一百四十二公里。以血和汗來形容這條鐵路的建成一點都不為過。十萬工人組成的工程大軍，經歷氧氣只有平地一半、氣溫在攝氏五度至零下卅度的惡劣環境，往往工作一段時間，便要使用特殊設備吸氧以恢復體力。

四年來，從工地指揮官到工人，紛紛罹患高山症，頭痛欲裂，惡心，肺水腫，以及無數的凍傷，有的甚至因此死亡。

日夜施工趕進度有如作戰，使原訂五年的工期，縮短將近一年。目前鐵路已經鋪進拉薩，距火車站只剩最後不到一公里路段，所有的器具和材料都已運抵現場，務必在十月十八日全線貫通。許多聞訊趕來的藏人和遊客跑到施工現場，撫摸火車頭、枕木、鐵軌，留影紀念。

青藏鐵路創下數個世界紀錄，它是全世界海拔最高的鐵路，平均達到四千公尺，相當於在台灣最高峰的玉山山頂上行駛。比祕魯安地斯山的三千公尺高山鐵路還要再高一千多公尺。

穿破苦寒地
奔馳凍土區 跌破老外眼鏡

除了高度，青藏鐵路工程還要克服高寒土地特有的「凍土」（長期處於攝氏零度以下、含冰的各種岩石和土壤，土質極不穩定，影響路基）。要穿越五百五十公里的凍土地區，被國外專家視為幾乎不可能。更有國外媒體預言，青藏鐵路越不過凍土厚達一百五十公尺的風火山隧道。

當風火山隧道開工時，的確讓施工人員嚇到了，因為土地爆破炸出的「棄碴」，幾乎全是晶瑩剔透的冰塊，含土量僅百分之廿。施工單位調來大型空調機，把隧道施工溫度控制在攝氏五度左右，防止地下冰融化滑塌。最後再以防水隔熱等廿多種高原凍土施工法貫通隧道。

海拔五千零一十公尺的風火山隧道只是一例。施工單位為了保持多年凍土的熱穩定，以熱棒、片石層通風路基、片石通風護道、通風管路基、鋪設保溫板等多項先進技術，穩定凍土路基。對施工品質有把握，通車後時速，將從一般世界凍土區的五十公里，增至一百公里。

越可可西里
保護藏羚羊 建特大高架橋

青藏高原沿線有脆弱的生態資源和珍稀物種，鐵路為穿越青海的可可西里保護區，投入廿億元人民幣興建全長近十二公里的特大高架橋，留給藏羚羊一條回家的路。在藏羚羊交配期，配合藏羚羊的生育，還曾一度停工。

青藏鐵路論證四十年，早年中共國力不強，施工技術水平不高，沿線地質 資料不全，加上擔心破壞生態，一直不敢嘗試，寧願謹慎，但工程人員一直沒有放棄努力，探索可行的辦法。上世紀八○年代先行動工完成較無爭議的青海省境內、 西寧至格爾木的八百一十四公里路段，稱為青藏一期。五年前，當時的中共領導人江澤民、朱鎔基在戰略布局和「西部大開發」等前提下，青藏鐵路全線拍板定案並 動工。

青藏鐵路位於海拔四千公尺以上的地段，占總長百分之八十四。全線共設置十一個有人值守車站、五個景觀站和十八個無人值守車站。建設經費約為三百卅億元人民幣（約合台幣一千三百二十億 ）。

觀光效應》旅遊黃金線 青藏鐵路處處美景

【記者陳東旭／綜合報導】

青藏鐵路從西寧到拉薩近二千公里路段，沿途景色壯麗無比。青藏鐵路貫通後還須接受一連串測試，預計從明年七月一日起試營運，旅遊界已經預期，青藏鐵路可能會超越絲路，成為首屈一指的黃金路線。

青海首府西寧市往西走便到格爾木，青藏鐵路從格爾木至拉薩，沿線共有卅四個車站，鐵路當局已在玉珠峰、長江源、唐古拉、錯那湖、當雄五處設置景觀站。遊客每到一處勝地美景，可下車逗留，一站一站地玩進西藏。

第一個站點「玉珠峰」海拔四千公尺，距格爾木一百一十公里處，就在道 教重鎮崑崙山的山口東側。在武俠小說裡，崑崙山是冰雪的世界，武林高手的天堂。連綿數千里的巍巍山脈和雪山冰川，贏得「千江之母、萬山之父」的美譽。玉珠 峰站依傍在六千一百七十八公尺的玉珠峰山腳下，望著皚皚白雪的玉珠峰顯得雄偉又蒼茫。

第二個站點是「長江源」，海拔四千五百多公尺，有「長江源」石碑。儘管距海拔真正的長江源頭還有一大段路程，但在這裡已可看到著名的可可西里、三江源自然保護區。運氣好的話，還能看到上千頭藏羚羊走過清水湖特大橋的景象。

第三站是「唐古拉」，此站是青藏鐵路的最高點，海拔達五千零六十八公尺，由於海拔實在太高，被形容為「一天四季，十里不同」，從車站可以看到終年積雪的唐古拉山峰頂，及數十條遠古冰川形成的連綿雪景。

第四站已進入西藏，位在安多站附近的「錯那湖」，是熱振活佛著名的神湖，可以看到成群的雁、鴨及成雙成對的黑頸鶴。

第五站是「當雄」，距離拉薩只剩一百六十公里，但海拔仍有四千三百公尺。當雄是拉薩的北大門，遊客從這裡開始，便沉浸在西藏的美景、和悠久的宗教文化藝術裡。

青藏鐵路公司已決定，明年將開通從北京、上海、廣州、成都、蘭州、西寧至拉薩的客車。列車分為普通客車和豪華旅遊專列兩種，前者是運輸乘客的純粹交通工具，而豪華專列則以旅遊為主，車廂將有增壓、增氧等功能。

【2005/10/09 聯合報】

政治影響》青藏鐵路 加速漢化 藏獨更難

本報記者陳東旭

達賴喇嘛數月前曾一度肯定青藏鐵路對西藏的開發將是有目共睹，但最近又改稱，青藏鐵路不利於西藏。青藏鐵路究竟是一把從北京直插西藏心臟的利刃，還是一條改善西藏人民生活的「幸福線」，就如同達賴前後兩種看法般眾說紛云。

青藏鐵路背後蘊含的政治意義，與可觀的經濟利益一樣複雜又多樣。它的 經濟利益不僅引起旅遊業關注，就連做生意的、跑單幫的、賣小吃的，全盯著它；科學家也在探索它的人文和自然科學意義；但更重要的是政治面，政治家、國際觀 察家正在評估青藏鐵路帶給西藏，甚至整個南亞的影響力。

青藏鐵路確有可能成為一條「幸福線」。五十年前，只能靠駱駝向西藏長途運輸貨物，但每行進一公里，就倒下十二隻駱駝。一九五二年護送十世班禪大師返回西藏時，二千多公里的行程，共死了三萬多頭牲畜。

「出國易、進藏難」，是公認的事實，早年要向西藏輸送貨物，從上海走水運到印度再北上，都比從青海進藏容易。

這樣的地理格局，讓西藏一直保有純淨的自然環境和人文風俗，甚至是一個獨立的政治實體。清政府沒駐軍、國民政府沒力量派軍，直到中共解放軍才入藏，駐軍意味對西藏的主權宣示。

只不過中共實際控制西藏的能力仍不足，而青藏鐵路的政治目的即在此，其影響並將進一步擴大到民族、經濟、社會文化各個層面。中共部隊在西藏的軍事部署、後勤補給及機動能力，也會大大提高。

在宏觀經濟來看，青藏鐵路通車後，西藏與各省市間的交通運輸能力大 增，運輸成本和時間銳減，源源不斷的人員和貨物從外省市流入西藏，將來青藏鐵路第三期再從拉薩往東、西、南延伸，整個西藏將與各省市緊密結合，形成休戚與 共的共同體，讓中國走向一個所謂「完全或完整的國家」。

青藏高原俯瞰整個南亞大陸，北京這把利刃掌握了西藏，西藏要再談獨立已是天方夜譚，青藏鐵路也對南方的印度形成戰略壓力，影響到今後「中」印雙方有關爭議領土邊界的解決走向。

夜晚青藏高原上的月亮、星星是那麼的皎潔與璀璨，一年後青藏列車就要奔馳在這片高原上。青藏鐵路背負大西部開發的重要任務，它在帶給少數民族經濟發展、加速西藏脫貧之餘，也使西藏加速漢化、內地化，帶來汙染。

藏人擔心的就在此，火車通了，一些惡習也將源源不斷進來，欠缺公德心的遊客、隨手亂丟垃圾的民眾，只想撈一票就走的商賈、乃至販夫走卒，都將進入這處世外桃源。西藏能否免除嘈雜、髒亂、色情、犯罪，能否再保有純粹、美麗的山川雪嶽，都會是大家關注的焦點。

有別於當年解放軍進藏後的政治洗禮，漢人將來搭乘火車大舉進藏，除了必須保護好西藏的山明水淨，維護西藏文化、尊重藏人宗教習俗，將是刻不容緩的課題。

【2005/10/09 聯合報】